Ylonka Bakker on population pressure in Nigeria
“The impressive size of its economy has disguised the bleak reality that the Giant of Africa has too many mouths to feed, and economic and population trends suggest that the problem will only get worse.”
This study diverges from previous research by concentrating on the fertility rate instead of the population growth rate, acknowledging fertility as the foundation of population growth influenced by social, economic, political, cultural, and psychological factors. Despite Nigeria's high fertility rates, there has been insufficient exploration of their correlation with welfare indicators on sub-national and urban-rural level. The unresolved debate surrounding whether reduced fertility rates could improve a nation's welfare highlights the necessity for research of this nature.
Data is retrieved from the Global Data Lab (GDL) that collects cross-sectional survey data on health and demographic indicators, which was used to test the interrelatedness by method of multivariate statistical analysis. The dataset consists of 37 sub-regions for the years 1996 up until 2021, accounting for 962 observations in total. The survey waves include 1999, 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018; all other years are interpolations between the years and extrapolations at extremes for 3 years. Robustness checks, which solely include the survey waves, are also incorporated in the analysis.
The poorest individuals are typically found in the Northern region and rural areas, particularly in Yobe, Sokoto, Zamfora, Kebbi, Jigiwa, and Bauchi (see Figure 1a, left). Notably, these sub-regions also exhibit relatively high fertility rates (see Figure 1b, right). Significant variations in multidimensional poverty exist among Nigeria's sub-regions, particularly between the south and the north, as well as among most northern sub-regions. This implies that potential correlations may vary significantly across sub-regions, calling for a discrete analysis.
Figure 2 illustrates the mean values of recent data (2018-2022), comparing Nigeria with two developed countries: The Netherlands and the United States. In relative terms, Nigeria exhibits a higher total fertility rate (5.2 per woman) and lower ages at first marriage and first birth compared to the two developed nations. The figure suggests that these characteristics are linked to a lower International Wealth Index score.
Further research
For fertility rates: socio-economic factors and population pressure, linkages between education, reproductive health, and fertility preferences.
Beyond fertility rates: examining migration patterns, policy evaluations, infrastructure and urban planning.