Nathalie Bak on climate and health
"The perspective of climate research should be broadened to construct more effective policies, as climate scientists have emphasized that global warming not only affects mean and extreme temperatures but also temperature variability, which in turn affects socioeconomic outcomes."
This research contributes to the literature by being the first study to examine the relationship between temperature variability and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. This is important because (1) research on temperature variability is lacking in Africa, and (2) only 12.2% of prior research on the effect of climate change on children is conducted in low-income countries, while children in low-income countries are the most vulnerable and therefore expected to be affected the most.
Dataset
The study introduces a novel dataset on temperature which enables the examination of daily temperature data on subnational level. The dataset is created in collaboration with the GDL and consists of data from 1995-2018 of 291 subnational units in sub-Saharan Africa. It is created by combining daily temperature and annual precipitation MERRA-2 reanalysis satellite data with a panel data set on child mortality rates and child mortality determinants extracted from the Global Data Lab. A fixed panel analysis was conducted to investigate the effect of temperature variability on child mortality.
Figure 1 shows the distribution of the bins used over the years. It does not indicate a shift over the years of the distribution of the bins and thus does not show a change of DTR due to climate change as emphasized in prior research. However, this can be due to the unclear pattern of DTR in Africa due to different climate regions, showing decreases of DTR in some regions, and increasing patterns of DTR in others. Therefore, future research should focus on the different climate regions.
In table 1, the distribution of the diurnal temperature range bins is shown. Most days fall into the middle DTR bins, but there is still sufficient data that covers the lowest and highest bin. With this data, more research on the effect of low and high DTR can be done. It is necessary to research the effect of low and high DTR in order to act upon changing DTR in the future.
Table 1: Descriptive statistics of the DTR bins
| DTR bin | Frequency | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| < 5ºC DTR | 557.704 | 10.52 |
| 5-10ºC DTR | 1.803.704 | 38.02 |
| 10-15ºC DTR | 1.768.703 | 33.36 |
| > 15ºC DTR | 1.171.879 | 22.10 |
Further research
Africa is one of the most affected regions of climate change, and the effects of climate change could widen the gap between rich and poor. More research is needed to examine the effects of temperature variability for longer time periods, different climate regions, specific causes of death and different subgroups in order to establish a clear view on the effect of temperature variability on mortality in Africa and to develop better health interventions and policies.
This study also showed a significant effect of precipitation on child mortality. Future research should further study what causes precipitation to have this effect in sub-Saharan Africa in order to further reduce child mortality.